Climate Change: Fact or Myth?

Stutt Trading

3 days ago

6 min read

Climate change has become one of the most discussed subjects in agriculture, yet it remains one of the most misunderstood.

For some, the changing climate is an obvious reality. For others, questions remain. Haven't temperatures always gone up and down? Haven't droughts, floods and unusually hot seasons always been part of farming? And how can we be certain that what we are experiencing today is different from the natural changes that have occurred throughout history?

These are reasonable questions.

The climate has never been completely static. Temperatures, rainfall patterns, droughts and other weather conditions have varied naturally over thousands and millions of years.

The important question, therefore, is not whether the climate has changed before.

It has.

The question is: what is driving the changes we are seeing today?

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗪𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲?

Before considering climate change, it is useful to distinguish between weather and climate.

Weather is what we experience from day to day — today's temperature, this week's rainfall or a particularly cold winter morning.

Climate refers to longer-term patterns and trends in weather over many years.

One unusually hot summer does not, by itself, prove climate change. Likewise, one exceptionally wet season does not disprove it.

Farmers understand this distinction better than most. A single good rainfall does not mean that a drought has ended, just as one dry month does not necessarily mean that a drought has begun.

Climate is about the longer-term picture.

𝗛𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗵'𝘀 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗔𝗹𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱?

Yes.

Natural changes in the Earth's climate have occurred throughout its history. Changes in the Earth's orbit, solar activity, volcanic activity and natural variations within the atmosphere and oceans have all influenced climate over different periods.

This is an important part of the discussion because acknowledging natural climate variability does not contradict the evidence for modern climate change.

Both can be true.

The climate can change naturally, while human activity can also influence the climate.

The evidence collected over recent decades shows that the current warming trend cannot be explained by natural factors alone. South Africa's National Climate Change Information System notes that climate models are unable to reproduce recent warming without including human-generated greenhouse gas emissions.

𝗦𝗼, 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗛𝗮𝘀 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱?

Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have significantly increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are among the gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect itself is not something new or inherently harmful. It is a natural process that helps keep the Earth warm enough to support life.

The difficulty arises when the concentration of greenhouse gases increases substantially, strengthening that natural warming effect.

The burning of fossil fuels, industrial activity, land-use change and other human activities have increased greenhouse gas concentrations significantly.

The result is a long-term warming trend.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), increases in average and extreme temperatures across Africa are attributable to human-caused climate change with high confidence.

This does not mean that every drought, flood or storm can automatically be blamed on climate change.

That distinction is important.

Climate change can influence the likelihood, intensity or duration of certain events without being the sole cause of every individual weather event.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗙𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀??

For South African farmers, climate change is not simply a question of what happens to the global average temperature.

The more immediate concern is what happens to the conditions under which farming takes place.

South Africa is already a country of climatic extremes. Farmers work with periods of drought, irregular rainfall, heat, frost, floods and changing seasonal conditions.

Research and South African government assessments indicate that increasing temperatures and greater variability in precipitation present significant risks to agriculture. Livestock production is also vulnerable to periods of excessive heat and reduced forage availability.

The IPCC similarly reports that livestock systems across Africa are already being affected by climate-related changes, including increased precipitation variability and its effects on fodder availability.

For a livestock farmer, this can translate into very practical concerns:

Less predictable grazing conditions
Pressure on water resources
Reduced forage availability during difficult seasons
Increased heat stress in animals
Changing disease and parasite pressures
Greater uncertainty around planning and stocking decisions

None of these issues are entirely new.

What can change is their frequency, severity or timing.

𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗜𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗔𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁?

This is where the conversation becomes particularly important.

A drought is a weather and climate event. Droughts have occurred throughout history, long before modern industry.

It would therefore be incorrect to suggest that every drought is caused by climate change.

At the same time, a changing climate can influence the conditions in which droughts occur.

The IPCC reports that human-caused climate change has increased heatwaves and drought on land across Africa, while projecting increased drought frequency and duration across parts of southern Africa as warming increases.

For farmers, the practical lesson is not necessarily to ask whether a particular drought was “caused by climate change”.

The more useful question may be:

𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆?

That is a question every farmer can do something about.

𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝘆𝘁𝗵?

So, where does that leave the question we started with?

𝗜𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗮 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗺𝘆𝘁𝗵?

The evidence tells us that modern climate change is real.

The Earth's climate has always varied naturally, but the current warming trend is occurring alongside a substantial increase in greenhouse gases resulting from human activity. The scientific evidence does not support the idea that natural climate variation alone explains the warming observed in recent decades.

But there are also misconceptions on the other side of the discussion.

Climate change does not mean that every year will be hotter than the previous year.

It does not mean that every drought, flood or storm is caused by climate change.

And it does not mean that farming as we know it will simply become impossible.

The future is considerably more complicated than that.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗙𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗗𝗼?

Perhaps the most constructive part of the climate change discussion is not the argument over whether the climate is changing.

It is the question of resilience.

Good farming has always involved preparing for uncertainty.

Farmers manage grazing carefully because rainfall cannot be guaranteed. They protect water resources because dry seasons come. They select suitable livestock because conditions differ from one region to another. They keep an eye on markets, weather forecasts, veld condition and animal health because farming has never been an exact science.

Climate change simply adds another consideration to that long-term decision-making process.

South African climate adaptation guidance encourages approaches such as improved water management, monitoring and early-warning systems, climate-smart agricultural practices and the combination of traditional knowledge with scientific information.

In practical terms, this can mean:

Protecting and improving soil health
Managing grazing pressure carefully
Maintaining reliable water sources
Paying closer attention to weather information
Choosing livestock and production systems suited to local conditions
Maintaining flexibility in stocking and feeding decisions
Preparing for both drought and excessive rainfall
Making use of improved forecasting and early-warning information

These are not necessarily revolutionary ideas.

In many cases, they are simply good farming practices.

𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗪𝗲 𝗛𝗮𝘃𝗲, 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗪𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿

Farmers have always adapted.

Generations of agricultural knowledge have been built around reading the land, understanding seasons and making decisions with incomplete information.

Climate change does not make that knowledge irrelevant.

If anything, it makes careful observation and good management more important.

The challenge is to combine what farmers already know with the best information that modern science can provide.

The goal is not to predict every season perfectly.

That has never been possible.

The goal is to build farming systems that are better able to withstand whatever the next season brings.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗱

Climate change is neither simply a political argument nor a reason for alarm.

It is a scientific reality that farmers, like every other sector, must increasingly take into account.

At the same time, natural climate variability remains part of the picture. Understanding the difference between the two is important because it prevents us from blaming every unusual weather event on climate change while also preventing us from overlooking a genuine long-term trend.

For agriculture, perhaps the most sensible response is the one farmers have relied upon for generations:

𝗢𝗯𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹𝘆. 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗹𝘆. 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀. 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁.

The weather will always surprise us from time to time.

Good farming is about making sure that when it does, the farm is ready.

𝗥𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀